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<main class="flex-grow-1">
  
  <section class="my-5">
    <div class="container">
      <div class="row">
        <h2 class="mb-4">Makro-Analyse</h2>
        <div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
          <ul class="list-group">
            <li class="list-group-item bg-dark text-white fw-bold">Konjunkturzyklus</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/" target="_blank" class="text-dark">PMI (Manufacturing, Services)</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA" target="_blank" class="text-dark">BIP-Wachstum (QoQ, YoY)</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Arbeitslosenquote</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILMPCSMSA" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Einzelhandelsumsätze</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Industrieproduktion</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://cbonds.de/indexes/99130/" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Citi Economic Surprise Index</a></li>
          </ul>
        </div>
        <div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
          <ul class="list-group">
            <li class="list-group-item bg-dark text-white fw-bold">Plan-B Invest</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4348400001" target="_blank" class="text-dark">All Employees, Truck Transportation</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Child Care Services</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://finviz.com/groups.ashx" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Sektorenanalyse / Rotationen</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders" target="_blank" class="text-dark">ISM Manufacturing New Orders</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_gdp_growth_yoy" target="_blank" class="text-dark">United States Real GDP YoY</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA" target="_blank" class="text-dark">US Initial Jobless Claims</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT" target="_blank" class="text-dark">US Consumer Sentiment</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT" target="_blank" class="text-dark">US Building Permits</a></li>
          </ul>
        </div>
        <div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
          <ul class="list-group">
            <li class="list-group-item bg-dark text-white fw-bold">Inflation & Geldpolitik</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Inflation</a> (CPI, PPI, Core, <a href="https://truflation.com" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Trueflation</a>)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Zinsen</a> (Leitzinsen, <a href="https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-T10Y2Y/chart/" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Zinsstrukturkurve</a>)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Zentralbank-Ausrichtung (hawkish/dovish)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Erwartungen vs. Realität: Pricing über Zins-Futures (z. B. Fed Funds Futures, ECB Watch)</li>
          </ul>
        </div>
        <div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
          <ul class="list-group">
            <li class="list-group-item bg-dark text-white fw-bold">Liquidität & Kreditvergabe</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Geldmenge (M2)</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A1CAAAEY" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Kreditvergabe</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Zentralbankbilanzen (QE/QT)</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Repo-Markt</a> & <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Bank Lending Standards</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Kredit-Spreads (<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A3HYC" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Schrott</a> gegen <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A1HYBB" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Qualität</a>)</li>
          </ul>
        </div>
        <div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
          <ul class="list-group">
            <li class="list-group-item bg-dark text-white fw-bold">Sentiment</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS" target="_blank" class="text-dark">VIX (Volatilität)</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://en.macromicro.me/charts/449/us-cboe-options-put-call-ratio" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Put/Call-Ratios</a></li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_mutual_fund_and_etf_flows" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Fund Flows</a> (z. B. ETF-Zuflüsse)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item"><a href="https://www.cftc.gov" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Commitment of Traders (COT Reports)</a> & <a href="https://en.macromicro.me/cot-flow" target="_blank" class="text-dark">COT Flows</a> & <a href="https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders" target="_blank" class="text-dark">Charts</a></li>
          </ul>
        </div>
        <div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
          <ul class="list-group">
            <li class="list-group-item bg-dark text-white fw-bold">Bewertung von Assetklassen</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Aktienmarkt (KGV, Shiller P/E)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Bonds attraktiver als Aktien?</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Dollar</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Gold</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Rohstoffe (Gold, Öl, Kupfer)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Währungen (DXY, EUR/USD, JPY/USD)</li>
            <li class="list-group-item">Krypto (Bitcoin als „Makro-Asset“)</li>
          </ul>
        </div>
      </div>
    </div>
  </section>
  
  <section>
    <div class="container text-center my-5">
      <div class="card">
        <div class="card-header bg-dark text-white fw-bold">
          Indikatoren
        </div>
        <div class="card-body">
          <div class="timeline-container">
            <div class="timeline-block t-minus-2">
              <h5>T ≤ –2 Months</h5>
              <div class="event-box">Lagging Economic Data (nutzt die FED)</div>
              <div class="event-box">GDP</div>
              <div class="event-box">CPI</div>
            </div>
            <div class="timeline-block t-zero">
              <h5>T = 0</h5>
              <div class="event-box">ISM</div>
              <div class="event-box">Earnings</div>
              <div class="event-box">S&P 500</div>
              <div class="event-box">Cyclical Equities</div>
              <div class="event-box">Small Caps</div>
              <div class="event-box">EM Equities</div>
              <div class="event-box">Commodities</div>
              <div class="event-box">Altcoins</div>
            </div>
            <div class="timeline-block t-plus-3">
              <h5>T = +3 Months</h5>
              <div class="event-box">Bitcoin</div>
              <div class="event-box">Tech Stocks</div>
              <div class="event-box">Yield Curve</div>
            </div>
            <div class="timeline-block t-plus-6">
              <h5>T = +6 Months</h5>
              <div class="event-box">Global M2</div>
            </div>
            <div class="timeline-block t-plus-9">
              <h5>T = +9 Months</h5>
              <div class="event-box">GMI Financial Conditions Index (Dollar, Öl, US10Y)</div>
              <div class="event-box">Gold</div>
            </div>
          </div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </div>
  </section>
  
</main>
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